Greece is expected to receive updated fiscal data on 22 April, when Eurostat and the Hellenic Statistical Authority are set to publish final figures for the country's 2025 primary surplus. The surplus is anticipated to exceed budget targets for a fourth consecutive year, providing the basis for new government support measures to mitigate the economic effects of the war in the Middle East.
Greece's Minister of National Economy and Finance, Kyriakos Pierrakakis, who also serves as president of the Eurogroup, has already indicated an upward revision of the surplus figures. A Bloomberg report estimates the primary surplus could reach 4.8%-4.9% of GDP, compared with an initial budget target of 3.7%. The same report states that fiscal overperformance is expected to continue into 2026, exceeding the current target of 2.8% of GDP.
Similar projections were outlined by the International Monetary Fund in its Fiscal Monitor, which forecasts sustained high primary surpluses in Greece over the coming years. According to the IMF, the surplus is expected to reach 4.4% of GDP in 2025, followed by 3.8% in 2026 and 3.1% in both 2027 and 2028. The report also projects a significant reduction in Greece's public debt, from 145.7% of GDP in 2025 to 110.9% by the end of 2031.
Greece's government attributed the country's fiscal performance to strong economic growth and higher revenues, driven by efforts to curb tax evasion, despite the economic impact of the Middle East conflict. These conditions reportedly shaped the government's approach to supporting households facing higher energy costs and inflation linked to the crisis.
The final level of the 2025 primary surplus, together with European fiscal rules governing annual expenditure by member states, is expected to determine the country's fiscal space for additional support measures, a key factor shaping policy decisions.
Since the outbreak of the war in Iran, the government has already implemented two packages of support measures, primarily targeting vulnerable groups. These include caps on gross profit margins across the fuel supply chain and on essential supermarket goods. Additional measures include subsidies at the pump for diesel purchases, the "fuel pass" scheme, and support for fertilisers.
Looking ahead, the available fiscal space and the duration of the Middle East conflict will determine the scope of further support policies. In an interview with ERT, Pierrakakis stated: "We will wait to see the final data, we will wait to see what fiscal space is available, we will correlate our assessment with what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz, with what is happening in the coordinates of this energy crisis, and we will certainly intervene accordingly." He added that the duration of the crisis will be decisive, noting that "the data will be different if the crisis lasts another two weeks, different if it lasts another two or three months."
