Tourism stakeholders in northern Greece are adopting a cautious yet relatively calm stance regarding the 2026 summer season, despite broader concerns about the ongoing war in the Middle East. According to market participants, the current crisis is affecting travel patterns unevenly, with air travel bearing the brunt of rising energy costs, while road tourism remains comparatively resilient.
The increase in fuel prices has made car travel more expensive, but industry figures suggest the impact remains manageable, particularly for visitors from neighbouring Balkan countries who typically travel by road to reach destinations in northern Greece. For example, the average fuel cost for a 500 km return journey is estimated to have risen from around €200 to approximately €250. This increase is not considered prohibitive, especially as such trips are often shared among multiple passengers.
As a result, destinations that rely heavily on road tourism, including Asprovalta, Kavala, Thassos, Samothrace and Pieria, are expected to maintain arrival levels similar to last year. In these areas, the strong flow of regional visitors is seen as a stabilising factor for the season.
In contrast, Halkidiki presents a more mixed picture due to its balanced reliance on both air and road travel. Early indications suggest that May 2026 may underperform compared with the previous year, and uncertainty remains around roughly half of expected air travel bookings, which have either not yet been made or finalised. Much will depend on the extent of airfare increases, as these are likely to influence demand from key international markets, including Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, the Netherlands and Italy. Even in Halkidiki, however, road arrivals could act as a buffer, potentially filling accommodation gaps if air travel demand weakens.
Compared with southern Greece, where tourism is almost entirely dependent on air connectivity, northern Greece benefits from this dual access model. As a result, the region's tourism sector is currently more focused on managing rising operational costs rather than fearing a collapse in visitor numbers. These costs, driven by increases in energy and raw materials linked to the Middle East crisis, are estimated to have risen by around 10% on average.
Accommodation providers face additional pressure because prices for the 2026 season were set in autumn 2025, at roughly 5% higher than in 2025, leaving limited scope for adjustments. Hoteliers and short-term rental operators are therefore expected to absorb the increased costs, effectively reducing their profit margins.
The qualitative and economic gap between tourism in northern and southern Greece currently favours the south. Addressing this imbalance will depend on attracting more air travellers, who typically come from higher-income markets and contribute more to local economies.
For Thessaloniki, where tourism also relies on both air and road access, the outlook is more uncertain. Losses from the Israeli market are considered inevitable due to the conflict, and this is significant given the strong presence of Israeli visitors in the city. This comes at a time when Thessaloniki had been experiencing tourism growth, including a narrowing of hotel price differences with Athens. Overall, industry figures are urging patience and composure. While crises tend to dampen travel demand, the current situation is seen as temporary.
by Giorgos Mitrakis - adapted from Greek by Vassia Barba
